demografia · economia e demografia

Os centenários no Brasil

Pessoal da demografia, sempre me trazendo bons estudos.

Does anyone know the exact number of centenarians in Brazil? Since the nineteenth century, the census has provided the number of 100-year-olds in one of the most populous countries worldwide. In 1900, 4,438 individuals reported themselves to be centenarians, and 100 years later, 24,576 centenarians were recorded in the census. Due to data quality issues, we are skeptical about the real growth of the recorded population in the census. Therefore, we produce new statistics of the centenarian population through the variable-r method combined with different mortality models. We offer a set of estimates of the most likely number of centenarians in Brazil over the period 1900-2000. There was virtually no centenarian at the beginning of the twentieth century, and only in the 1990s, the centenarian population surpassed 1,000 individuals. Our estimates confirm an extensive over-enumeration of centenarians in census records since 1900. The good news is the improvement in census data collection over time.

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