Na próxima quarta…

…estarei lá em Juiz de Fora para um ótimo evento. Matarei parcialmente sua curiosidade:

– Early Financial Crises in an Infant Republic: An Empirical Analysis of the Encilhamento in Brazil (1889-1906)
Claudio D. Shikida, Gustavo S. Cortes; IBMEC/MG, University of Illinois 

Resumo: The end of the nineteenth century is a remarkable period in Brazilian economic history. In 1889, Brazil had just turned from Empire to a Republic when a monetary and financial crisis known as Encilhamento took place. The infant Brazilian republic had neither experience nor adequate institutions in dealing with such phenomena. This paper analyses the difficulties faced by the early republican government using two different methods to date the crisis. The exchange rate reflects domestic and foreign shocks faced by the Brazilian economy and is one of the most reliable macroeconomic series for the period.  We empirically estimate the breaks in the exchange rate monthly series from 1889 to 1906 to identify each period of the crisis. We conclude that there were up to six structural breaks in the exchange rate of the period. We suggest, from our tests, that economic events were responsible for most of the changes, although institutional and political events also contributed to explain several breaks in the period.

Meu primeiro trabalho com o excelente Gustavo S. Cortes. O início de uma (espero) longa parceria em História Econômica.