Uncategorized

Dia sem Imposto

Os consumidores adoraram e protestaram. Que bom. Espero que não terminem na corrupção de muitos dos “protestadores” dos anos 60, 70, 80 e 90.

Depois eu conto para vocês algumas coisas sobre a carga tributária ótima, recalculada.

Uncategorized

Capoeira

Capoeira pode ser tudo, menos não-rival e excludente a ponto de merecer a atenção dos subsídios do governo. Claro que o governo britânico não pensava nisto quando resolveu subsidiar a capoeira. Certamente fez gracejo com uns mirrados eleitores praticantes e, como sempre acontece, em horas de crise, todo mundo quer saúde pública e educação básica muito mais do que  praticar capoeira.

A dinâmica disto você já sabe: haverá queixas, choro e ranger de dentes mas o fato é que o estilo Musgrave de explicar como funciona a economia do setor público nunca foi muito realista. Prefiro Buchanan.

p.s. várias palestras interessantes (Blanchard, Tullock, Buchanan, Musgrave, Alesina, Poterba, Tanzi, Shleifer, etc) aqui.

Uncategorized

Eis uma bela dica

Agradeço ao Pedro (Homo Econometricum) pela dica abaixo.

Dear Colleagues,

We write to invite you to participate in the choice prediction competitions that will be conducted as part of the special issue of the journal Games

(http://www.mdpi.com/journal/games/) on “Predicting Behavior in Games”

(http://www.mdpi.com/si/games/predict-behavior/).

You are invited to participate as a competitor, and as an organizer.  Below you can find two calls that clarify this invitation. The first is the call to participate in the first competition that we organize. The second is a call to propose and organize your own competition.

Call 1. The first “Games” competition: Predicting behavior in market entry games.

The first competition focuses on the prediction of behavior in repeated 4-person market entry games. The organizers first ran (in March 2010 at Harvard) an experimental study of (40) games that were randomly selected from a well-defined space of market entry games. The raw experimental results of this study, referred to as the “estimation experiment,” are presented in the competition’s website (http://sites.google.com/site/gpredcomp/).

In addition, the competition website includes the rules of the competition, and a link to a paper that summarizes the results of the estimation experiment and explores the value of several baseline models

(http://www.mdpi.com/2073-4336/1/2/117/.)

The site explains that the goal of the participants in the competition is to predict the results of a second experiment. This study, referred to as the “competition experiment,” will be run by the organizers in May 2010 (but the results will be kept confidential until 2 September 2010). The competition experiment will use the same method as the estimation experiment, but will study different games (drawn from the same space of games) and different subjects.

To participate in the competition you will have to email us a computer program (in MATLAB, Visual Basic, or SAS) that reads the parameters of the games (the incentive structure) as input, and predicts the main results as output. The program should be an implementation of your favorite model. To develop and/or estimate your model you are encouraged to analyze the data of the estimation experiment, and to build on the baseline models that were posted in the competition website.

The submitted models will be ranked based on the mean squared deviation between the predictions and the results of the competition experiment. The prize for the winners will include an invitation to publish a paper that describes the winning model in Games, and an invitation to a special workshop.

The submission deadline for this competition is 1 September 2010. You are allowed to submit one model as a first author and to co-author up to three additional submissions.

Call 2. Invitation to propose and organize a competition.

You are invited to propose a choice competition to the special issue of Games.

The proposed competition should focus on interesting spaces of game, with the hope that they will improve our understanding of the predictive value of different descriptive models.

The format of the competitions should be similar to the format of the competition described above. Specifically, they should be based on two large experimental studies: An estimation experiment, and a competition experiment.

The organizers will first run the estimation experiment (on games that will be randomly selected from a well-defined space of games). Then, they will post the results on the web, and publish (in Games) a paper that introduces the competition. The paper should summarize the results of the estimation experiment, evaluate leading baseline models, and describe the rules of the competition. The main task in the competition will be to predict behavior in the competition experiment.

Proposals for organization of competitions should describe the motivation and the proposed method (including the space of games you will study). They can use the format of the first five pages of the paper that describes the introduction to the choice prediction competition for market entry games that can be found at http://www.mdpi.com/2073-4336/1/2/117/. Please send e-mail proposals and related questions to Ido Erev (erev@tx.technion.ac.il).

Best regards,

Ido Erev, Eyal Ert and Al Roth