In this paper we applied the survival analysis to estimate the probability of re-election of the politicians. We focused on the House of Representatives members who had won at the 43rd General Election that held in November 2003 and observed whether these members keep their seat in the next election or not. The main issue of 44th General Election was the postal reform, and the anti-administration parties had disadvantages of the election. We found out that the average members of opposition party tend to lose their seat in such unfavorable situation while the hereditary members keep their seat. Our results also showed that the third-generation politician whose parents and grand-parents are politicians faces higher probability of re-election.
Ok, isto é no Japão. Alguém sabe como é no Brasil? Estudo similar já foi feito por aqui?