Uncategorized

Utilidade Esperada na prática

A análise econômica do direito e sua vida.

The campaign is based on an economic analysis of law, which describes how a person behaves when faced possible sanction. Assuming that the person is risk averse, she will evaluate the decision in terms of expected value. The greater the magnitude of sanction and probability of enforcement, the lower the expected value from breaking the law. For example, if there’s a 10 percent chance of facing a $200 sanction for not wearing a seat belt, following the law is “worth” $20. If the value of not wearing a seat belt is less than the expected value of following the law, she will wear her seat belts; if her annoyances associated with wearing a seat belt are greater than the expected value of following the law, she will not.

Because local authorities do not usually publish information about the probability of sanctions, perception of enforcement is imperfect. With their national “Click it or Ticket” campaign, the NHTSA is taking advantage of this fact by coordinating efforts to make the probability of sanction seem more likely than it actually is. State agencies will return to their previous enforcement levels when the campaign is over, but the NHTSA is banking on the fact that you won’t notice. The hope is that you will be more likely to wear a seat belt because you will over-estimate the probability of getting caught.

Em negrito, por minha conta.

Claudio

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