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Por falar em modelos DSGE…

Reproduzo:

The 12th annual DYNARE Conference (http://www.dynare.org) will be held in Rome at Banca d’Italia on September 29-30, 2016. The conference is organized by the Banca d’Italia, together with Banque de France, DSGE-net, and the Dynare project at CEPREMAP.

The DYNARE conference will feature the work of leading scholars in dynamic macroeconomic modeling and provide an excellent opportunity to present your own research results.

Pierpaolo Benigno (LUISS Guido Carli University and EIEF) and Raf Wouters (National Bank of Belgium) will be plenary speakers.

Submissions of papers dealing with different aspects of DSGE modeling and computational methods are all welcome. Papers using other software tools than DYNARE or theoretical contributions are also encouraged.

Paper submission procedure: please send a complete manuscript or a detailed abstract in PDF format at conference@dynare.org<mailto:conference@dynare.org>

Deadline for submissions is April 10, 2016. Authors of accepted papers will be informed by April 30, 2016.

Accepted papers will be automatically considered for publication in the Dynare Working Papers series (http://www.dynare.org/wp) conditional on the agreement of the submitter. Note that publication in the Dynare WP does not prohibit submission to another working paper series.

Contact: conference@dynare.org<mailto:conference@dynare.org>

Conference organizers: Andrea Gerali (Banca d’Italia), Michel Juillard (Banque de France), Alessandro Notarpietro (Banca d’Italia), and Massimiliano Pisani (Banca d’Italia).

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DSGE…e um novo livro

The virtue of DSGE macroeconomics is brought out by the following encounter with a frustrated student. He protested that he knew there were many theories of macroeconomics, so why was I teaching him only one? My reply was that this was because only one theory was required to analyze the economy, and it seemed easier to remember one all-embracing theory than a large number of different theories [Wickens, M. Macroeconomic Theory – A Dynamic General Equilibrium Approach, Princeton University Press, 2011, 2nd ed, preface, p.XV]

Nada como uns dias no PPGOM com uma mesa cheia de novos livros que o pessoal comprou para eu me ver, em poucos dias, com um exemplar de um livro de macroeconomia novo em casa. Eu havia folheado o livro e decidido comprá-lo. Agora, ao ler o início do início (o famoso “prefácio”), vejo que minha compra foi acertada.

Sensacional este trecho aí, não?

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Política monetária

O Laurini anunciou e eu dou mais uma dica. Olha o resumo abaixo. Atenção para as conclusões da patota:

The literature on monetary economy has aroused growing interest in macroeconomics. Due to computational advancements, models have been increasingly more complex and accurate, allowing for the in-depth analysis of the relationships between real economic variables and nominal variables. Therefore, using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model, based on Gali and Monacelli (2005), we propose and estimate a model for the Brazilian economy by employing Bayesian methods so as to assess whether the Central Bank of Brazil takes exchange rate fluctuations into account in the conduct of monetary policy. The most striking result of the present study is that the Central Bank of Brazil does not directly change the interest rate path due to exchange rate movements. A simulation exercise is also used. Our conclusion is that the economy quickly accommodates shocks induced separately on the exchange rate, on the terms of trade, on the interest rate, and on global inflation.

O que há de bacana neste artigo, além desta conclusão? Bem, os autores não fizeram o famoso “pega-o-modelo-do-cara-e-encaixa-ele-na-marra-na-sua-amostra” que é sugerido como trabalho monográfico por professores inexperientes, com pouca formação ou, claro, os picaretas de sempre.

Nada disso.

O modelo do texto foi adaptado e modificado para tentar ser uma estilização do caso brasileiro. Com todos os problemas que isto pode causar, na minha opinião, ainda será sempre melhor do que o exercício bobo de replicar um modelo construído para Ronaldinho Gaúcho em Casagrande. Ou vice-versa.