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Concursos de Beleza Keynesianos

Pois é. Agora que temos sua atenção, vale a pena citar o assunto principal.

Quantifying the Beauty Contest: Density Inflation-Forecasts of Professional Japanese Forecasters

Yosuke Takeda
Professor, Department of Economics, Sophia University
Abstract
The paper aims at quantifying the higher-order expectations that Keynes (1936) compared to the beauty contest, applying a measure of relative entropy to the Japanese ESP Forecast Survey data during the deflationary period. We conclude that during the deflationary period from June 2009 to April 2010 and from April 2010 to February 2011, professional Japanese forecasters faced the Keynesian beauty contest, in which average expectations dominate agents’ expectations.

Satisfeito?

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Concursos de beleza, economia e a pergunta de sempre

Economists do not care as much as our colleagues in Mathematics and Natural Sciences whether our models and theories are aesthetically beautiful (Lee & Lloyd 2005), but we care a lot for the attractiveness of our colleagues and, when we vote for Vice Presidents and members of the Executive Committee of the American Economic Association, we end up choosing the candidates with better-looking pictures (Hamermesh 2006).

Com uma frase destas, e ainda citando Keynes, o que você esperaria deste artigo? Achou muita viad**em? Pois confira o anexo do artigo para relaxar.

Ah sim, a pergunta de sempre é: “por que economista pterodoxo é tão feio?”