escolha pública · escolhas públicas · public choice · Uncategorized

Por que governos privatizam seus presídios?

Eis o anúncio seguido do link para o artigo.

The fifth annual Vincent and Elinor Ostrom Prize has been awarded to Anna Gunderson, Ph.D. student in political science at Emory University (www.annagunderson.com), for her paper “Why do States Privatize Their Prisons? The Unintended Consequences of Inmate Litigation”.

The Ostrom Prize is awarded each year to the single best combined paper and presentation by a graduate student at the annual meetings of the Public Choice Society. The Prize carries a commemorative plaque and $1,000 honorarium sponsored by The Institute for Humane Studies at George Mason University. 2019 is the fifth year for the Ostrom Prize.

Gunderson’s paper was selected as one of three finalists among a field of approximately 20 entries, and then presented on a special session at the 56thAnnual Meetings of the Public Choice Society, March 14-16 in Louisville, Kentucky. Her entry was selected as the winner by a panel of six judges.

“This year’s field of entries was excellent,” President Roger Congleton said, “and the selection committee had a difficult decision to make.”

Ah sim, o artigo.

Why Do States Privatize their Prisons? The Unintended Consequences of Inmate  Litigation
Abstract
The United States has witnessed privatization of a variety of government functions over the last three decades. Media and politicians often attribute the decision to privatize to ideological commitments to small government and fiscal pressure. These claims are particularly notable in the context of prison privatization, where states and the federal government have employed private companies to operate and manage private correctional facilities. I argue state prison privatization is not a function of simple ideological or economic considerations. Rather, prison privatization has been an unintended consequence of the administrative and legal costs associated with litigation brought by prisoners. I assemble an original database of prison privatization in the US and demonstrate that the privatization of prisons is best predicted by the legal pressure on state corrections systems, rather than the ideological orientation of a state government.

sinalização

Se é que tal criatura existe…(sinalização)

Observing monkeys biting each other, Bateson remarked that they were “engaged in an interactive sequence of which the unit actions or signals were similar to but not the same as those of combat” (1955/1972a, p. 152; emphasis added). That is, to a casual observer or a poorly socialized monkey (if there were such a creature), the same actions might be taken as either fight- ing or playing. Bateson reasoned that the monkeys must have some way of signaling to each other—some form of “meta-communication”—that enabled them to discern which of the two modes was afoot. They were, in other words, “framing” their actions to signal either fight-biting or play-biting. [VAN HULST, M.; YANOW, D. From Policy “Frames” to “Framing”. The American Review of Public Administration, v. 46, n. 1, p. 92–112, 2014]

Ah, macaquinhos…

Economia do Setor Público

Breve observação sobre Mariana, Brumadinho, Arrow e a taxa de desconto

Este pequeno artigo de Shepsle, homenageando Arrow, tem alguma intuição interessante sobre o valor presente de obras como as barragens que, infelizmente, causaram grandes tragédias.

Em resumo, o resultado de Arrow-Lind é que a taxa de desconto intertemporal não precisaria considerar aspectos de aversão ao risco quando o projeto em questão envolve uma grande quantidade de indivíduos. Nas palavras do autor:

The intuition is that as n gets large the utility function of an individual, whatever her risk preferences, becomes approximately linear in the (shrinking) range of possible outcomes, thus rendering her approximately risk neutral. The implication for public projects is that the flow of net benefits needs to be discounted only for time and not for risk. The present value of a public project is just the sum of expected values discounted for time.

Mas, e aí vem a reflexão do próprio Shepsle: esta conclusão não seria válida para bens públicos. A intuição é que, para bens públicos, os benefícios não são divisíveis (lembra da sua aula de Economia do Setor Público?), como suposto no raciocínio que leva ao resultado de Arrow-Lind. Afinal, no rompimento de uma represa (ou barragem de detritos):

Everyone sinks or swims together.

Interessante, não?

 

Econometria · Econometria aplicada · prática da econometria

Uma perspectiva sobre Econometria

A animação lembra muito os traços do divertido Archer. A econometria de Angrist é muito popular por estes dias. Nunca é demais lembrar que os contrafactuais entraram na Ciência Econômica pelos trabalhos de Robert Fogel, em História Econômica. Também não é demais lembrar que há um debate interessante sobre a econometria com participantes pesos pesados.

previdência

Brincando com correlações sem nenhuma pretensão

velhinhos

Eixo vertical: dados da CIA Factbook (2017) para a taxa de dependência dos idosos (% of elderly population that are likely to be economically “dependent” on the support of others).

Eixo horizontal: o bom e velho “logaritmo da taxa de mortalidade dos colonizadores em 1500” dos estudos de História Econômica/Desenvolvimento Econômico.

Claro, correlação não implica causalidade, mas a gente pode se divertir um pouco no carnaval, não? Ficou meio embolado, mas o Brasil está ali logo acima da reta de ajuste e abaixo da Argentina (ARG), no meio de alguns países.