economia · irracionalidade racional · viés

Caplan sobre o viés e tudo o mais

You can hardly teach economics without bumping into these biases. Students of economics are not blank slates for their teachers to write on. They arrive with strong prejudices. They underestimate the benefits of markets. They underestimate the benefits of dealing with foreigners. They underestimate the benefits of conserving labor. They underestimate the performance of the economy. And in doing all that underestimating, they overestimate both the need for the government to solve these purported problems and the likely efficacy of its solutions.

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decisão · economia política · microeconomia · viés


When it comes to surveillance and terrorism, are we not doing enough to prevent the next terrorist attack, or are we collecting too much unnecessary information?

In the mortgage market, are we making it too difficult or too easy for first-time homebuyers to purchase homes?

Would one have expected that the cost of restoring order after an invasion of Afghanistan to be relatively light compared to the cost of restoring order after an invasion of Iraq?

Most people approach these issues with hindsight bias. In situations of uncertainty, hindsight bias causes a number of problems.

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