Experimentos: precisamos de mais

Há muito pouca gente fazendo experimentos por aqui. É preciso: (a) reconhecer as limitações da ferramenta, (b) estimular a concorrência e (c) integrar melhor a prática com a teoria.

Experimentos são vendidos, por alguns, como a panacéia. Não é. A economia política predomina. Não acredita? Faça como Hernando de Soto: calcule quantos dias e por quantas repartições/agências uma proposta de experimento tem que passar até ser aprovada pelo governo. Depois, inclua uma análise mais cínica, de Public Choice, misture tudo e você perceberá que experimentos são importantes, mas…

Claro, desejamos mais experimentos e menos picaretagem. Mas não ajuda se não formos realistas.

Eis um bom texto sobre o tema.


Recado importante da Public Choice Society

Recado importante:

Due to popular demand, we are extending the submission deadline forward by two weeks to Friday November 15 at 11:59 p.m. Eastern. To propose your paper, please submit the title and abstract at our Submit Paper page. The selection panel will do its best to respond with decisions by December 1.

The Best Conference:

Friendly reminder, the 57th Annual Meetings will be held March 12-14, 2020 at the gleaming Newport Beach Marriott Hotel & Spa in Newport Beach, California. Attendees will experience PCS’s rigorous yet collegial atmosphere, including exciting plenary discussions, over 70 concurrent sessions on topics across all fields in public choice, and much time for informal discussion, socializing, and sustenance. Arrive in time for Thursday’s opening plenary and cocktail reception. Join for Saturday’s awards luncheon, the Duncan Black Prize, Gordon Tullock Prize, and Vincent & Elinor Ostrom Prize. And stay through Saturday’s closing reception. Hotel, registration, and other helpful info is on our 2020 Conference Page.

Graduate Students:

You are eligible for the fifth annual annual Vincent and Elinor Ostrom Prize, awarding $1,000 for best combined paper & presentation by a graduate student (honorarium sponsored by the Institute for Humane Studies). Graduate students can also apply for financial assistance under the Society’s Student Fellows Program. Professor Lynne Kiesling, PCS’s Director of Graduate Programs, will contact graduate students who have submitted their title and abstract at the Submit Paper page.

Plenary Speakers: We are excited to announce our line up of plenary speakers:

– Amihai Glazer, University of California – Irvine, “How commitment problems affect policy”

– Susan Rose-Ackerman, Yale University, “Corruption and Institutions”

– Andrew T. Young, Texas Tech University, “Feudalism in Medieval Europe”

– Claudia Williamson, Mississippi State University, “Culture, Regulation, and Development”

Please click below to follow us on Facebook and Twitter, where we will be posting more about these fine scholars, their work, and how it situates into the broader body of public choice research.

Pre-conference experimental / empirical workshop . The 2020 conference will have an important new feature. For the first time, PCS will be conducting a pre-conference empirical workshop (open to scholars who have a paper accepted onto the program), covering topics such as causal inference, machine learning, artisanal data techniques, and more, specifically on how these methods are being utilized in new lines of public choice research. Participants will be encouraged to bring a research problem to share and workshop. More details will be shared once program decisions have been made. If you are interested in learning more, please drop us a line at info@publicchoicesociety.org.

We look forward to seeing you next March in Newport Beach! It truly provides the dynamic setting for our conference that only Southern California can.

Sincerely yours,

Roger Congleton

President, 2018-2020


Edward J. Lopez

Executive Director and Past President


Café e Alchian-Allen

Que sensacional termos um novo artigo sobre o velho e bom Teorema de Alchian-Allen!!

Shipping the good coffee out: the Alchian–Allen theorem and relative demand for Brazilian Arabica and Robusta coffees
Dragan Miljkovic, Miguel I Gómez

The validity of the Alchian–Allen (AA) theorem is tested for the export demand of Brazilian Arabica (high-quality) and Robusta (low-quality) coffees. We check for robustness using different model specifications, estimation procedures and time periods. Given that international prices for both Brazilian naturals (Arabica varieties) and Robusta are determined on international commodity exchanges, the change in relative price varies by country only due to changes in transportation costs. Results show that the consumption of Arabica increases relative to the consumption of Robusta with distance, therefore with the corresponding increasing per-unit transportation cost. We confirm that GDP per capita does not impact relative demand for coffee.

O Leo é quem vai vibrar com este artigo, creio.


História e Relações Internacionais: China e EUA

History Matters in International Relations: Evidence from Long-Memory Processes in Sino-American Cycles 
Carlos D. Ramirez
Yingxin Du

Measures of bilateral political relations are typically long-memory (fractionally integrated) processes. Appropriate inference and interpretation of this property hinges on the underlying reasons behind it. There are three possible explanations: (i) mechanical aggregation, (ii) bilateral relations history, and (iii) structural breaks. Explanations (i) and (iii) are data-induced, and thus not particularly meaningful. Explanation (ii) indicates that long-memory is a genuine feature in the series’ dynamics. Using Sino-American relations as a case study, we conduct three tests to identify the underlying cause. We first examine the stability of the long-memory parameter over the sample period (1980-2018), and discard structural breaks. Next, we evaluate the longmemory parameter for U.S.-China political relations, and for seven issues in the bilateral political relations portfolio. Finally, we investigate whether bilateral political relations and each of the issues are fractionally cointegrated. Our results suggest that the bilateral relations history is pivotal for explaining the observed fractional integration.

No mínimo, um artigo interessante. Sai do lugar comum, muito retórico, destes debates que até enchem auditório, mas não nos acrescentam muito em conhecimento.


Mercado de seguros…no tempo dos piratas

Provavelmente eu já falei disso aqui. Mas a pergunta, do Leo Monasterio, é a melhor: quanto valeria um olho hoje? Ou melhor, qual o preço relativo de um olho em relação a um braço, por exemplo, hoje em dia?

“Then came the agreed awards for the wounded, who might have lost a limb or suffered injuries. They would be compensated as follows: for the loss of a right arm, 600 pieces of eight or six slaves; for a left arm 500 pieces of eight or five slaves. The loss of a right leg also brought 500 pieces of eight or five slaves in compensation; a left leg 400 or four slaves; an eye, 100 or one slave, and the same award was made for the loss of a finger. If a man lost the use of an arm, he would get as much as if it had been cut off, and a severe internal injury which meant the victim had to have a pipe inserted in his body would receive 500 pieces of eight or five slaves in recompense.” (The Invisible Hook: The Hidden Economics of Pirates” by Peter T. Leeson)

Direto do Kindle para você.

Start reading this book for free: http://a.co/aqvcwPL