metas de inflação

Metas de Inflação e o Mercado Imobiliário (dica para os interessados no tema, direto do NBER)

Housing and Monetary Policy

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John B. TaylorNBER Working Paper No. 13682
Issued in December 2007
NBER Program(s): EFG ME

—- Abstract —–

Since the mid-1980s, monetary policy has contributed to a great moderation of the housing cycle by responding more proactively to inflation and thereby reducing the boom bust cycle. However, during the period from 2002 to 2005, the short term interest rate path deviated significantly from what this two decade experience would suggest is appropriate. A counterfactual simulation with a simple model of the housing market shows that this deviation may have been a cause of the boom and bust in housing starts and inflation in the last two years. Moreover, a significant time series correlation between housing price inflation and delinquency rates suggests that the poor credit assessments on subprime mortgages may also have been caused by this deviation.

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metas de inflação

Metas de inflação versus Câmbio fixo

Ao contrário do que afirmam certas menininhas histéricas, o sorvete derrete mesmo se o câmbio é fixo. É o que mostram Mihov & Rose.

We compare the duration and performance of different monetary regimes, especially the contrast between countries those that fix exchange rates and those that target inflation. Inflation targeting is a more durable policy; no country has yet been forced to abandon an inflation target, while many have abandoned fixed exchange rates. Indeed, even though inflation targeting began only in 1990, the duration of inflation targeting regimes is at least as long as, or longer than all alternative monetary regimes for comparable countries. Regime duration also matters in monetary policy; older regimes are typically more successful than younger ones in achieving low inflation.

Difícil mesmo é ver a mídia nacional dar espaço a certas afirmações de forma a-crítica. O artigo cujo resumo cito está aqui.

metas de inflação

Metas de inflação: faz diferença?

Frederic Mishkin é um sujeito importante quando o assunto são as famosas metas de inflação.  Aí vai um trecho legal:

NBER Research Associate Frederic Mishkin and co-author Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel review the pros and cons of inflation targeting in Does Inflation Targeting Make A Difference? (This work — published in NBER Working Paper No. 12876 – was completed before Mishkin became a member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.) Developing – or emerging – nations with high inflation benefit the most from the practice, the study finds. For mature, developed nations like the United States, the benefits are far more subtle.

Many nations are warming to the idea of inflation targeting. By 2005, for example, eight industrial economies and 13 emerging ones had adopted full-fledged inflation targeting. Many others expect to make the move soon. But the case for inflation targeting has not been open and shut.

While studies have generally established a link between the practice and improved economic performance, they haven’t proven that the former causes the latter. Indeed, stable and mature non-targeting nations, including the United States, have often done just as well or better without it. “[T]he ongoing debate on whether inflation targeting matters indicates that open questions remain, particularly on the comparative macroeconomic performance in inflation targeting countries, both over time and relative to nontargeting countries,” write the authors of this study. “[W]hat really matters for successful monetary policy is establishing a strong nominal anchor. While inflation targeting is one way to achieve this, it is not the only way.”

By looking carefully at a broad sample of 21industrial and emerging-economy inflation-targeting countries over time, and comparing them with a control group of 13 industrial non-targeters, the authors conclude that a target does indeed improve economic performance but the effects vary dramatically depending on the type of economy that attempts it.

Se eu fosse interessado no tema não hesitaria…leia logo!