A estatística do futebol: chutes a gol que se convertem em gol

Conforme este interessante estudo, no modelo estendido, espera-se que um jogador médio (na amostra) acerte, jogando em casa, cerca de 11,4% para um chute a gol. No modelo mais simples, o percentual é de 10,2% (e 9,1% fora de casa).

A base de dados diz respeito ao campeonato inglês.

p.s. embora não seja um trabalho de economia do futebol, optei por citá-lo aqui pelo resultado interessante. Nunca vi algo similar para o Brasil, mas nunca pesquisei muito a respeito.

Anúncios

Economia do Futebol – novamente

Outro artigo novo sobre o tema. Eis o resumo:

Playoffs or Just League: A Debate in Brazilian Football
Thadeu Gasparetto and Angel Barajas
Abstract:
After several consecutive seasons in the league, the Campeonato Brasileiro may return to the playoffs format. The Brazilian Football Confederation (CBF) and some Brazilian clubs commented that this format will provide higher competitive balance and increase the interest of Brazilian football fans. Therefore, the objective of this paper is to assess the competitiveness and the interest of Brazilian fans in the last twenty-four seasons: Playoffs (1991-2002) and League (2003-2014). The competitiveness is evaluated by Herfindahl Index of Competitive Balance (HICB) and C4 Index of Competitive Balance and the interest measured by the average attendance to the stadiums. The results show that Brazilian League has become more balanced since 2003 season and football fans are more interested in the tournament with league format. The main conclusion is that the change to the playoffs would not improve the competitiveness and the interest of fans. Moreover some problems of the Brazilian football market are commented and some solutions proposed to improve it.
É, também estou curioso para ler o artigo.