Os autores dizem:
We offer an alternative explanation: the Catholic church retreated in the mid1960s from providing a variety of family-friendly services that had previously reduced the cost of Catholic childrearing. Nuns were key to the provision of those services, and the Second Vatican council of 1962–65 (known as “Vatican II”) led to a dramatic decline in the number of nuns (as well as priests) and thus raised the cost of childrearing.
Há também um modelo teórico microeconômico – elegante – e estimativas. As conclusões? Descubra aqui. Spoiler: não são as preferências que mudaram (^_^)
Pessoal da demografia, sempre me trazendo bons estudos.
Does anyone know the exact number of centenarians in Brazil? Since the nineteenth century, the census has provided the number of 100-year-olds in one of the most populous countries worldwide. In 1900, 4,438 individuals reported themselves to be centenarians, and 100 years later, 24,576 centenarians were recorded in the census. Due to data quality issues, we are skeptical about the real growth of the recorded population in the census. Therefore, we produce new statistics of the centenarian population through the variable-r method combined with different mortality models. We offer a set of estimates of the most likely number of centenarians in Brazil over the period 1900-2000. There was virtually no centenarian at the beginning of the twentieth century, and only in the 1990s, the centenarian population surpassed 1,000 individuals. Our estimates confirm an extensive over-enumeration of centenarians in census records since 1900. The good news is the improvement in census data collection over time.