Substituição de importações diminuirá a desigualdade…eles diziam.

Latin American earnings inequality in the long run (Cliometrica, Sep/2017)
Leticia Arroyo, Pablo Astorga Junquera
This paper traces between-group earnings inequality for six Latin American countries over two centuries based on wage and income series compiled from a large array of primary and secondary sources. We find that inequality varied substantially by country and by period, questioning the notion that colonial legacies largely dominated the evolution of inequality. There is a broader inequality trajectory over the long run in the form of an “m” pattern with peaks around 1880 and the 1990s and a trough around 1920/1930s. Export-led growth does not necessarily imply a rise in inequality, while the import-substitution industrialisation efforts did not translate into a more egalitarian distribution of income. More notably, Latin America’s experience does not exhibit the great inequality levelling as seen in the North Atlantic economies from the 1930s to the 1970s.

Parece que não foi bem assim, não?


Para os cliometristas…

Victory or Repudiation? The Probability of the Southern Confederacy Winning the Civil War

Marc D. Weidenmier, Kim Oosterlinck

Historians have long wondered whether the Southern Confederacy had a realistic chance at winning the American Civil War. We provide some quantitative evidence on this question by introducing a new methodology for estimating the probability of winning a civil war or revolution based on decisions in financial markets. Using a unique dataset of Confederate gold bonds in Amsterdam, we apply this methodology to estimate the probability of a Southern victory from the summer of 1863 until the end of the war. Our results suggest that European investors gave the Confederacy approximately a 42 percent chance of victory prior to the battle of Gettysburg/Vicksburg. News of the severity of the two rebel defeats led to a sell-off in Confederate bonds. By the end of 1863, the probability of a Southern victory fell to about 15 percent. Confederate victory prospects generally decreased for the remainder of the war. The analysis also suggests that McClellan’s possible election as U.S. President on a peace party platform as well as Confederate military victories in 1864 did little to reverse the market’s assessment that the South would probably lose the Civil War.

Você conhece a Cliometria?

Aposto que seu professor de História Econômica não te contou…

 The Sixth World Congress of Cliometrics will be held from Thursday July 17 through Sunday July 20, 2008 at the Dalkeith Palace located near Edinburgh, Scotland. The Program Committee will put together an international program from the proposals submitted to the conference. Proposals are due November 15, 2007 and should be submitted via the form on the Congress web site at The program will be posted on the Congress web site,, and the applicants will be informed in January 2008. If your paper is accepted for presentation, you are committing to sending a 22 page version of your paper to Program Committee no later than March 11, 2008.

All members of sponsoring organizations are invited to attend. Advance registration will be open January 1, 2008. To receive the Congress book in a timely fashion, those interested in attending must register for the conference by March 1, 2008.

As with the Annual Cliometrics Conference and the previous World Congresses, papers will be available in the Congress Book, sent to all participants. Sessions will be held in the traditional Cliometrics Conference format. Rather than formal presentations, authors will provide a brief five-minute introduction of the paper and then the floor will be open for discussion by the session participants. Thus, participants will be expected to have read the papers when they attend the sessions.

Accommodations will be available at Dalkeith Palace, the University of Edinburgh and local hotels. Complete information about registration and lodging, and the Congress Registration Form will be announced through the EH.NET list serves and on the Congress website later this year. Applicants will be encouraged to use the registration form on the Congress web site. However, they will also be able to submit the required information via e-mail, fax or post.

A limited number of Travel Grants will be available for Economic History Ph.D. students who would like to attend the Sixth World Congress. The U.S. National Science Foundation has provided funds through the Cliometrics Conference grant to help Ph.D. students defray travel and lodging expenses for the conference. Students from all countries are eligible for the grants.. Students who receive the grants must be a member of one of the sponsoring organizations.

Graduate students interested in applying for the grants must submit a paper proposal. When submitting the proposal, follow the link to the Travel Grant Application Form. Students whose proposals are accepted for presentation will receive first priority. Students whose proposals are not accepted for presentation are also eligible, funding permitting. In 2004 travel grants were awarded to nearly 20 Ph.D. students in economic history.

Additionally, the British Academy has made available funds to support five awards of £500 for early career Cliometricians at the 2008 Congress who will be presenting a paper at the Congress and received their PhD within the last five years. Junior colleagues from all countries are eligible for these awards, and those interested in applying should follow the links to the Early Career Travel Grant Application Form. 

Onde está o Fábio Pesavento nestas horas? ^_^