Bolívia · Economia do Conflito

Economia Política do Conflito: Bolívia

Eis aí algo curioso em um modelo teórico sobre conflitos:

Thus, from the simple model of conflict and appropriation (which is also consistent with much of the related literature that has examined more elaborate economic environments), we have derived the following implications:
• Conflict reduces the resources available for consumption and production.
• Conflict and (contestable) income are positively related
• Conflict and investment are negatively related
• Conflict and endogenously-generated growth are negatively related
• Conflict and exogenously-generated growth are either not related or positively related (the latter, when growth is anticipated).

Conflito e crescimento (exogenamente gerado) com uma relação positiva? Bem, é o resultado do modelo dos autores deste artigo que analisa a economia do conflito na Bolívia. Como assim? Vejamos outro trecho:

In fact, growth seems to reduce conflict when endogenously generated, while it seems to cause conflict when exogenously generated. After specifying a simple model that generates hypothesis that take into account of these two different types of growth, we found evidence consistent with the hypotheses. In particular, variation in incomes due to changes in the terms of trade can be considered exogenous and we find that increases in such income induce greater conflict. On the other hand, greater conflict tends to reduce private investment, at least some of which could be considered to be a main source of future (endogenously-generated) growth. Finally, the degree of government repression tends, not surprisingly, to reduce conflict.

Estranho, não? Bem, leia o artigo para saber mais.