Foi-se a época em que alguém ganhava dinheiro na TV falando de estatísticas no futebol. Pesquisadores e amantes do tema se beneficiam da moderna era da internet. Não acredita? Olha que sensacional isso aqui.
Total fertility in the Catholic countries of Southern Europe has dropped to remarkably low rates (=1.4) despite continuing low rates female labor force participation and high historic fertility. We model three ways in which religionaffects the demand for children – through norms, market wages, and childrearing costs. We estimate these effects using new panel data on church attendance and clergy employment for 13 European countries from 1960 to 2000, spanning the Second Vatican Council (1962–65). Using nuns per capita as a proxy for service provision, we estimate fertility effects on the order of 300 to 400 children per nun. Moreover, nuns outperform priests as a predictor of fertility, suggesting that changes in childrearing costs dominate changes in theology and norms. Reduced church attendance also predicts fertility decline, but only for Catholics, not for Protestants. Service provision and attendance complement each other, a finding consistent with club models of religion.
Achava que só japoneses tinham menos filhos e que isso tinha a ver com a “cultura” (nunca definida…) deles? “Perdeu, playboy“…
O empreendedorismo pode gerar mais segurança em seu bairro? Veja o caso do criativo cidadão que resolveu criar uma solução privada para um problema público. No mínimo, mostra que a tecnologia pode ajudar a resolver (ou a minimizar problemas, para ser mais preciso).
Note que a mesma tecnologia pode gerar resultados opostos. O terrorismo e o uso de celulares, por exemplo, é um case já clássico presente no ótimo livro de 2018 do Eli Berman.
Não é como no livro-texto porque você precisa modelar o evento. Há várias formas de se fazer isso. As melhores foram resenhadas pelo Ellery, aqui.
Curioso para assistir…
Empirical research on the determinants of corruption has made substantial progress over the last decade. To date, the consequences of different structures of the legal enforcement institutions have, however, only played a marginal role. This contribution deals with both the determinants of corruption in the judiciary and the consequences of judicial organization for corruption at large. Regarding the latter, it is shown that the actual independence of the judiciary as well as that of prosecution agencies is correlated with lower levels of corruption. This is also true for a third indicator that measures the degree to which judges are held accountable for their decisions (“judicial accountability”). Furthermore, independence and accountability function as complements in preventing corruption – judicial accountability without independence appears to be ineffective, whereas judicial or prosecutorial independence alone can even have adverse effects. [On the wrong side of the law – Causes and consequences
of a corrupt judiciary, Stefan Voigt, Jerg Gutmann, International Review of Law and Economics, v.43, 2015, 156-166]
Vejamos as recomendações de política que os autores derivam de seu estudo.
“(…) (1) Make sure that the salaries of judicial personnel remain at least constant in real terms, i.e. insure their certainty, (2) insure that court decision are regularly published, (3) do away with the monopoly of the prosecutor to prosecute criminal acts, (4) reduce the number of independent procedural actions that need to be taken to produce an enforceable court decision and (5) increase the necessity for judges to justify their decisions in legal terms”. (p.163)
O que acha, leitor?
Veja só este:
We explore data from a field test of how an algorithm delivered ads promoting job opportunities in the science, technology, engineering and math fields. This ad was explicitly intended to be gender neutral in its delivery. Empirically, however, fewer women saw the ad than men. This happened because younger women are a prized demographic and are more expensive to show ads to. An algorithm that simply optimizes cost-effectiveness in ad delivery will deliver ads that were intended to be gender neutral in an apparently discriminatory way, because of crowding out. We show that this empirical regularity extends to other major digital platforms.
Imagino que vá gerar alguma polêmica, mas mostra como o alto valor de certos grupos (demográficos, etc) pode gerar resultados aparentemente contraintuitivos em termos de marketing.
“(…), gender is also not the only variable at play: women clients are also engaging in sex tourism, as documented both in Thorbek and Pattanaik, and in Taylor (2001). The latter, in particular, offers a more in-depth analysis of North American and Northern European women buying sex work services of young men in the Caribbean, in what they themselves describe as ‘romance holidays’. Responses to her interviews suggest that, on the one hand, women clients are mostly reluctant to define what they engage in as prostitution, and, on the other, that their ideas about the young men whose service they buy are deeply rooted in racist ideas about black men and black men’s sexuality. [DELLA GIUSTA, M. Simulating the impact of regulation changes on the market for prostitution services. European Journal of Law and Economics, v. 29, n. 1, p. 1–14, 2010.]
The most probable evolutionary explanation for apparently ‘selfless’ care ofadult group members lies not only in the benefits of helping relatives but also the selective advantages of reducing the risk of mortality of other group members in situations where groups are highly interdependent (Frank and Linsenmair, 2017). The selective benefits of are for the ill and injured are clearest where groups consist of close relatives. However where the survival of any one member is strongly linked to that of the others in the group caring for those who are injured is still selectively advantageous even without a high degree of genetic relatedness.
Como? Não entendeu? Aqui está:
Eis o título e o resumo do artigo:
Living to fight another day: The ecological and evolutionary significance of Neanderthal healthcareEvidence of care for the ill and injured amongst Neanderthals, inferred through skeletal evidence for survival from severe illness and injury, is widely accepted. However, healthcare practices have been viewed primarily as an example of complex cultural behaviour, often discussed alongside symbolism or mortuary practices. Here we argue that care for the ill and injured is likely to have a long evolutionary history and to have been highly effective in improving health and reducing mortality risks. Healthcare provisioning can thus be understood alongside other collaborative ‘risk pooling’ strategies such as collaborative hunting, food sharing and collaborative parenting. For Neanderthals in particular the selective advantages of healthcare provisioning would have been elevated by a variety of ecological conditions which increased the risk of injury as well their particular behavioural adaptations which affected the benefits of promoting survival from injury and illness. We argue that healthcare provisioning was not only a more significant evolutionary adaptation than has previously been acknowledged, but moreover may also have been essential to Neanderthal occupation at the limits of the North Temperate Zone.
The impact of two different economic systems on dishonesty
DanAriely, XimenaGarcia-Rada, KatrinGödker, LarsHornufde, HeatherManng
Using an artefactual field experiment, this paper tests the long-term implications of living in a specific economic system on individual dishonesty. By comparing cheating behaviour across individuals from the former socialist East of Germany with those of the capitalist West of Germany, we examine behavioural differences within a single country. We find long-term implications of living in a specific economic system for individual dishonesty when social interactions are possible: participants with an East German background cheated significantly more on an abstract die-rolling task than those with a West German background, but only when exposed to the enduring system of former West Germany. Moreover, our results indicate that the longer individuals had experienced socialist East Germany, the more likely they were to cheat on the behavioural task.
Até que ponto o determinismo prevalece (path dependence) é algo que não sei responder (e incomoda, não?).
O sociólogo aí acima é alguém que não vejo muito citado por aqui, por nossos sociólogos de gabinete…ou por nossos jornalistas que, aliás, hoje divulgaram uma suposta tendência à polarização da sociedade brasileira que seria preocupante. Uma tendência ao radicalismo que parece ser o resultado de uma miríade de fatores e, aposto eu, um deles, a falta de hábito de lidar com a diversidade (um hábito muito incentivado por quase 15 anos no país, por gente que pouco tinha (tem) de valores democráticos “em seu DNA”).
Parece-me que, quando você se esforça muito para calar vozes discordantes, uma virada de mesa no jogo do poder faz com que aqueles que sofreram passem a desejar aplicar a mesma repressão aos seus antigos algozes. O rancor gerado não deve ser desprezado…
Mas o início do vídeo me faz pensar no que vejo por aqui. Não é comum ver pessoas com camisas, digamos, do Bolsonaro nas universidades (e quando aparecem, surgem estranhas acusações de fascismo, etc). Será que a liberdade de expressão está sendo respeitada, praticada e incentivada no Brasil? Existe uma pesquisa séria (ou seja, com método científico, dados, aplicação honesta de métodos quantitativos) sobre o tema por aqui?
A propósito, a pesquisa é do Ipsos (mas não encontrei nada no site).
Zellner, the Bayesian
Augmented Dickey Fuller
Figura diretamente de um dos links acima.
Já vou incluir isso na minha sugestão de um curso – verdadeiramente científico – sobre golpes de estado.
A professora Leonor Freire Costa é alguém cuja produção acadêmica deve ser recomendada a todos que queiram, seriamente, estudar as companhias privilegiadas de comércio portuguesas. Veja, por exemplo, este último trabalho.