Por que não te casas?

fertilidade_japao

Como você já deve ter percebido, trata-se de um texto para discussão sobre a baixa fertilidade no Japão. Um pouco do resumo (gigantesco) do texto:

(…), we investigated attitudes toward marriage among never-married men and women between the ages of 25 and 39 (“Internet survey on the marriage and work conditions among never-married men and women”), aiming to obtain basic references for exploring the trend of not marrying in more depth. In the survey, we asked the same questions with the National Fertility Survey , compared the results while inquiring about the living environment (e.g., conditions of family members, work environment, respondents’ work style, and conditions of residential area), and analyzed the points that could not be clarified by the National Fertility Survey . Between July 2014 and May 2015, five meetings were held to complete this DP.

As conclusões? Parece que estou lendo algo da economia do casamento e divórcio de Gary Becker. Por exemplo:

Based on the finding that non-regular employees tend to show lower desire to marry than regular employees, we examined if the reason for this tendency was attributable to the “hypothesis of encountering (Deai Kasetsu),” derived from the hypothesis of marriage market mismatches. The results indicated that this hypothesis was applicable in general.

Ou isto:

We analyzed the factors preventing never-married men and women with desire to marry from encountering their potential marriage partners, considering the characteristics of each region while associating them with individual attributes and conditions they have for their marriage partners. In the case of women, they were not positive about finding their partners as they did not see many benefits in getting married when they lived with their parents. Parents’ better economic circumstances provided both men and women with more opportunities to encounter their potential partners. These results suggest resources are moving down the generations.

E isto:

It was also discovered that the sufficiency of social capital in family, workplace, and society strengthened both motivations toward marriage and having children. Good relationships with parents as a family-related factor and having opportunities for challenging tasks at workplaces as a job- and workplace-related factor had positive influences on the desire for marriage and having children, while continued employment of women at workplaces after marriage positively affects men’s and women’s desire to marry. It was found that high availability of regional child-care services had positive effects on both the desire for marriage and having children regardless of gender and employment status.

Infelizmente, não encontrei o artigo completo lá, mas isto é porque ele está todo em japonês (apenas o resumo está em inglês). De qualquer forma, pareceu-me um trabalho interessante. Surveys, quando bem usados, podem ser uma ferramenta útil na investigação de padrões de comportamento microeconômicos.

p.s. curiosamente, não encontrei Gary Becker, diretamente referenciado, no texto. Mas pode ser que ele está escondido nas referências. ^_^

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