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O multiplicador fiscal keynesiano no Brasil é de…

…0.5 ou menos. Eis o trecho:

We find historical fiscal multipliers for Brazil around 0.5, larger than what existing literature typically identifies for the average emerging market. However, spending and public credit multipliers seem to have dropped to near zero since the global financial crisis, as the estimate for the whole sample period (1999−2014) is about ½ of that for pre-crisis years. By contrast, revenue multipliers have remained broadly stable. We conclude that fiscal consolidations based on expenditure and public credit retrenchment are likely to entail a modest drag on growth in the near term.

Na literatura, para os EUA, há o artigo da Valerie Ramey (Ramey, Valerie A. 2011. “Can Government Purchases Stimulate the Economy?” Journal of Economic Literature, 49(3): 673-85) em que encontramos:

This essay briefly reviews the state of knowledge about the government spending multiplier. Drawing on theoretical work, aggregate empirical estimates from the United States, as well as cross-locality estimates, I assess the likely range of multiplier values for the experiment most relevant to the stimulus package debate: a temporary, deficit-financed increase in government purchases. I conclude that the multiplier for this type of spending is probably between 0.8 and 1.5.

Ou seja, nossa tão festejada política fiscal espansionista anda bem menos eficaz do que pensávamos. Até nosso parceiro comercial que, supostamente, está em crise (não é o que parece, ultimamente…) está melhor do que a gente e olha que o multiplicador é baixo. Afinal, o que você aprendeu no livro-texto é que o multiplicador é maior do que 1 (um).

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