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Obama tripudiou mas o mercado venceu: o petróleo e o gás do xisto

Victor D. Hanson ironiza a situação de Obama. Trechos ótimos:

The Obama administration never much worried about high energy costs. During the 2008 campaign, Obama promised that “under my plan . . . electricity rates would necessarily skyrocket.” Shutting down coal plants and using higher-priced but cleaner natural gas would pave the way for an even pricier mandated wind and solar generation.
In the vice-presidential debates of 2008, Joe Biden mocked Sarah Palin for the supposedly mindless campaign mantra of “Drill, baby, drill.” Biden intoned that “it will take ten years for one drop of oil to come out of any of the wells that are going to be drilled.”

Claro, como sabemos, há aí uma geopolítica envolvida, mas, no final…

The late Hugo Chávez used his oil windfall in Venezuela to subsidize subversion throughout Latin America. Petrodollar-rich Russian president Vladimir Putin charted a confident anti-American foreign policy.
Iran used its growing riches to step up progress toward producing a nuclear bomb while upping subsidies to terrorist organizations such as Hezbollah.
Then, finally, oil and gas prices plunged owing to the “drill, baby, drill,” can-do attitude of the private sector. Americans should thank the U.S. oilman — from the drillers in the field to the engineers behind the scenes — who did the impossible. They vastly increased the supply of what was supposedly a permanently declining resource, and thereby helped to crash prices.

Petróleo, xisto…aliás, o xisto está com tudo. Enfim, mais um exemplo de choque de produtividade trazendo mudanças em toda a economia. Para quem gosta de ciclos reais, este é um tema interessante. Só para você ver:

The history of natural gas wellhead and pipeline regulation, deregulation and regulatory reforms are discussed. These reforms brought natural gas shortages and pipeline inefficiencies to an end. They also created an economic platform that could support unanticipated developments in the supply and costs of domestic natural gas. Such unanticipated developments emerged in the last few years as several technological innovations came together to make it commercially attractive to development US shale gas deposits located deep in the earth. How and why shale gas supplies will lead to dramatic changes in the United States’ energy future with appropriate environmental regulatory reforms are discussed.

É, gente…tem que saber criar instituições que favoreçam os avanços tecnológicos e, vou dizer, geralmente, estas instituições não são nem um pouco parecidas com este intervencionismo superficial e de inspiração Geisel-Lulista…

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Por que o Brasil não avança?

Poderíamos nos perguntar sobre o porquê de a economia brasileira não se abrir. Ah, e a solução não é a famigerada “política industrial” (= “política industrial vertical”, queridinha dos pterodoxos).

In Brazil, given its labour shortages and aspirations of rising purchasing power, productive activities would be strengthened by the availability of cheaper local consumer, intermediate, and capital goods. Brazil’s immersion in global value chains would allow the country to leverage its comparative advantages which clearly exist in natural resource-associated industries but which could also emerge in specific activities in manufacturing or services once industries have access to cheaper inputs. Of course, public policy support remains essential. However, this support should be more horizontal in nature, rather than further encouraging the ongoing high density of production chains and perpetuating the extraordinary closedness of the Brazilian economy.

Ok, é preciso ler tudo, mas o artigo é pequeno. Não vai doer.

A coisa tá feia…