Nada disso teria acontecido se tivéssemos ficado reclamando da “matemática na economia”…

In a recent paper, (Inoue et al. 2014), we propose a methodology that can help researchers in that situation. Our idea is very simple. We propose to identify the sources of model mis-specification by introducing additional exogenous processes in the researchers’ models, beyond the structural shocks that the models already include. These additional exogenous processes, or ‘wedges’, are not structural shocks, but only additional processes that can potentially improve the fit of the model. In other words, wedges are distortions that incorporate possible model mis-specification which is not already accounted for by frictions built into the model. The idea is then to empirically identify which ‘wedges’ improve the fit of the models the most. Using this information, the researcher can identify which parts of the model are most likely to be mis-specified and can discover how the mis-specification of the model evolves over time. It also allows researchers to assess quantitatively how important the mis-specification is.



Prêmio Tesouro Nacional

O Leo Monasterio me informa da última edição do prêmio. Sou de um tempo em que as pessoas valorizavam prêmios, independente do berço, cor, religião ou da quantidade de dinheiro que os pais têm. Prêmio é bacana porque é sempre um motivador na carreira do cara.

Bateu um saudosismo…


Por que eu ensino Ma(i)croeconomia?

Acho que tem a ver com Adam Smith. Um dia eue elaboro mais calmamente sobre isto. Mas eis um trecho ótimo para se citar entre amigos (e para perder falsos amigos).

Smith was a proponent of free markets and economic freedom generally. But he wasn’t an anarchist or a doctrinaire libertarian. He understood that governments play an important role in enabling what modern economists call markets and what Smith considered the human propensity to swap one thing for another; what, in The Wealth of Nations, he called ‘truck, barter, and exchange’. Smith was a classical liberal, meaning a liberal in the original use of the word – someone who valued liberty and favored limited government. [Roberts, R. (2014). How Adam Smith Can Change Your Life, p,203]

É, eu não saio por aí fazendo amizades com quem considera um marxista um “débil mental” ou um “desonesto intelectualmente” sem considerar um pouco a história da pessoa. Adam Smith não vende camisetas, não tem a – auto-propagandeada, mas nem sempre verdadeira – coerência dos radicais.

Mas continua sendo, creio, o economista mais simpático de todos os tempos.


Conhecendo o consumidor: o caso da Ford e o uso do R


What technologies were you using?

At the time, the primary technologies we were using were really on more on the statistical side, so none of the big data stuff- we were not using Hadoop. The primary database technologies were SQL-driven. Ford has a mix of a lot of different technologies from a lot of different companies- Microsoft, Teradata, Oracle… The database technologies allowed us to go to our IT partners and say “This is the data that is important, we need to be able to make a decision based on this analysis”- and we could do it. On the statistical side, we did a lot of stuff in R. We did some stuff with SAS. But it was much more focused on the statistical analysis stuff.

Já viu o que se usa, né?  Outro trecho:

Ford use text mining and sentiment analysis to gauge public opinion of certain features and models; tell us more about that.

So a lot of the work that we’ve done to support the development of different features, and to figure out what feature should go on certain vehicles, is based on what we call very targeted social media. Our internal marketing customers will come to us and ask us, “We’re thinking about using this particular feature, and putting it on a vehicle”- the power liftgate of the Ford Escape is a good example, the three-blink turn signal on the Ford Fiesta is another one. In those circumstances, we will take a look at what most people think about the features on similar vehicles. What are they saying about what they would like to see? But we don’t pull in terabytes of Twitter and we don’t use Facebook- we go to other sources that we found to be good indicators what customers like. It’s not shotgun blasts, so to speak; it’s more like very specific rifle shots. This gives us not only quantitative understanding- this customer likes it and this customer doesn’t- but also stories that we can put against it.

Bacana, né? Vai lá ler o resto. A dica veio daqui.