Concursos de Beleza Keynesianos

Pois é. Agora que temos sua atenção, vale a pena citar o assunto principal.

Quantifying the Beauty Contest: Density Inflation-Forecasts of Professional Japanese Forecasters

Yosuke Takeda
Professor, Department of Economics, Sophia University
The paper aims at quantifying the higher-order expectations that Keynes (1936) compared to the beauty contest, applying a measure of relative entropy to the Japanese ESP Forecast Survey data during the deflationary period. We conclude that during the deflationary period from June 2009 to April 2010 and from April 2010 to February 2011, professional Japanese forecasters faced the Keynesian beauty contest, in which average expectations dominate agents’ expectations.