Multiplicadores keynesianos: até quando confiar neles?

Já falei que a discussão atual, no Brasil, é fraca, quase toda ideológica porque gente que poderia responder esta pergunta está ocupada com alguma atividade ou desistiu. Já o pessoal do NBER mostra que o debate econômico nos EUA existe e é infinitamente mais rico que o daqui. Senão, vejamos…

O resumo:

Renewed interest in fiscal policy has increased the use of quantitative models to evaluate policy. Because of modelling uncertainty, it is essential that policy evaluations be robust to alternative assumptions. We find that models currently being used in practice to evaluate fiscal policy stimulus proposals are not robust. Government spending multipliers in an alternative empirically-estimated and widely-cited new Keynesian model are much smaller than in these old Keynesian models; the estimated stimulus is extremely small just when needed most, and GDP and employment effects are only one-sixth as large, with private sector employment impacts likely to be even smaller.

E olha que nem falei do debate sobre raiz unitária que só não é importante se você ignora tudo o que foi escrito em Teoria Macroeconômica nos últimos 40 ou 50 anos. Sobre este já falei aqui, mas o leitor é fortemente convidado a juntar as peças com esta nova referência.

p.s. Veja também o Renato passar pela prova de fogo aqui.


O escravo e seu destino

Artigo interessante no NBER de Nunn & Wantchekon:

We investigate the historical origins of mistrust within Africa. Combining contemporary household survey data with historic data on slave shipments, we show that individuals whose ancestors were heavily raided during the slave trade today exhibit less trust in neighbors, relatives, and their local government. We confirm that the relationship is causal by using the historic distance from the coast of a respondent’s ancestors as an instrument for the intensity of the slave trade, while controlling for the individual’s current distance from the coast. We undertake a number of falsification tests, all of which suggest that the necessary exclusion restriction is satisfied. Exploiting variation among individuals who live in locations different from their ancestors, we show that most of the impact of the slave trade works through factors that are internal to the individual, such as cultural norms, beliefs, and values.

Como? Bem, vamos aos autores:

Using fine-grained individual-level survey data, we test whether the slave trade caused a culture of mistrust to develop within Africa. Early in the slave trade, slaves were primarily captured through state organized raids and warfare. By the end of the trade, because of the environment of ubiquitous insecurity that had developed, individuals – even friends and family members – began to turn on one another, kidnapping, tricking, and selling each other into slavery (e.g., Koelle, 1854, Hair, 1965, Piot, 1996). We hypothesize that in this environment, where everyone had to constantly be on guard against being sold or tricked into slavery by those around them, a culture of mistrust may have evolved, and that this mistrust may continue to persist today.

Isto sim é trabalho bacana…