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Economia Política da Disputa de Terras em Minas Gerais

Após muito tempo de espera, finalmente…

Economia política da disputa por terras em Minas Gerais

Ari Francisco de Araujo Junior; Claudio Shikida; Patrícia Silva Alvarenga

RESUMO O artigo estuda os determinantes da probabilidade de ocorrência de conflitos de terra, ocupações e assentamentos nos municípios mineiros. Os resultados apontam para a importância de fatores econômicos e políticos. Aparentemente, militantes pró-reforma agrária se adequam ao ciclo político, causando menos conflito em municípios governados por aliados. Por sua vez, a pobreza e o elevado crescimento arrefecem o ímpeto desses militantes.

Palavras-chave: desenvolvimento agrário, economia política, economia regional

Classificação JEL: D72, D74, O43

ABSTRACT The article analyzes the determinants of the probability of dispute over land (conflicts, occupations and settlement projects) in the Brazilian state of Minas Gerais. Through the use of a logit model, we found that the main influences are political and economical ones. Apparently, the behavior of the agrarian reform’s supporters follows the political incentive, with fewer occurrences of conflicts in towns governed by political allies. By other hand, the economical determinants – degree of poverty and the economic growth – have negative impacts on it.

Key words: agrarian development, political economy, regional economics

Este foi um dos artigos mais difíceis que já fizemos. Talvez o mais interessante seja a interpretação correta de variáveis de interação em modelos logit-probit.

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As agências de rating podem funcionar melhor?

Lawrence White acha que sim. Veja o trecho da entrevista:

Q. Are there drawbacks to more regulation?

Yes there are. In its efforts to get the NRSROs to “pull up their socks,” the SEC may well reduce or eliminate flexibility in the industry and squelch creativity and innovation with respect to alternative business models and better ways of assessing the default probabilities of bonds. Further, there is always the risk that the SEC “gets it wrong”say, mandating the wrong kind of Chinese wallsbut in that regulatory sphere, there are no alternatives.

Q. Is there a better way?

A. Yes, and it’s one which would rely less on regulation and more on markets.

Let’s start with the basic goal of financial regulation that led to the required reliance on rating agencies and then led to the SEC’s creation of the NRSRO category and its subsequent protective moat around the category’s incumbents. That goal was to insure the safety of the bond portfolios in banks, insurance companies, pension funds, money market mutual funds, broker-dealers, etc. This was a worthy goal. But in deferring to the NRSROs’ judgments as to safety (such as the determination of “investment grade”), the regulators were in essence delegating their safety judgments to this select group of rating agencies, who turn out not to have done their jobs all that well.

The key, then, is for the financial regulators to pull back that delegation. The goal should still be to have safe bond portfolios in regulated financial institutions. But the burden should be on each institution to defend its choices of bonds to its regulator. This defense could reside in original research. Or it could involve reliance on a trusted advisor, which could be a rating agency or some other advisory service. Regardless of the form of defense, the regulator should insist that the financial institution has a reasoned, sound basis for its choices.

Regulated financial institutions would thus be free to take advice from sources that they consider to be most reliablebased on the track record of the advisor, the business model of the advisor (including the possibilities of conflicts of interest), and anything else that the institution considered relevant. Again, the institution would have to justify its choice of advisor to its regulator. But, subject to that constraint, the bond-advisory information market would be opened to new ideas and new entry in a way that it has not been since the 1930s.

With this burden-on-the-institution regulatory model adopted by financial regulators, the SEC could eliminate the NRSRO designation.

Lawrence White tem sempre opiniões interessantes. Uma boa explicação sobre as causas da crise atual é de sua autoria e se encontra no Ordem Livre.


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Taxa de juros e taxa de câmbio

Eis um novo texto para discussão de meu colega Márcio Laurini:

EXCHANGE RATE MOVEMENTS AND MONETARY POLICY IN BRAZIL: ECONOMETRIC AND SIMULATION EVIDENCE
Luiz Gustavo Cassilatti Furlani
Marcelo Savino Portugal
Márcio Poletti Laurini

Abstract
The literature on monetary economy has aroused growing interest in macroeconomics. Due to computational advancements, models have been increasingly more complex and accurate, allowing for the in-depth analysis of the relationships between real economic variables and nominal variables. Therefore, using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model, based on Gali and Monacelli (2005), we propose and estimate a model for the Brazilian economy by employing Bayesian methods so as to assess whether the Central Bank of Brazil takes exchange rate fluctuations into account in the conduct of monetary policy. The most striking result of the present study is that the Central Bank of Brazil does not directly change the interest rate path due to exchange rate movements. A simulation exercise is also used. Our conclusion is that the economy quickly accommodates shocks induced separately on the exchange rate, on the terms of trade, on the interest rate, and on global inflation.

Creio que ele complementa e esclarece um bocado sobre o que eu, Ari e Ana Luiza havíamos discutido neste outro texto. Entretanto, a discussão prossegue. Será que a racionalidade política tem se sobreposto à lógica da racionalidade econômica nos últimos tempos, no que diz respeito à ação do Banco Central? Pior ainda, com a crise, como decompor estes efeitos?

Bem, o mínimo que você pode fazer é começar a estudar sobre decomposição de séries de tempo, VAR e, claro, economia política séria (aquela que se vê nos trabalhos de Allan Drazen, por exemplo).

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Ronald Coase Workshop – inscreva-se!

The Ronald Coase Institute
Bratislava Workshop on Institutional Analysis
May 10-15, 2009    Bratislava, Slovakia
Co-sponsored by the
University of Economics in Bratislava,
Virtual Scientific Laboratories, and the Tatra Banka Foundation

Apply by February 16, 2009

Attend this workshop to

· Learn more about institutional analysis
· Present your current research and receive comments from established scholars
· Become part of a worldwide network of institutional scholars.

Who is eligible?
· Postdoctoral social scientists – early in their careers
· Advanced graduate students – in economics, political science, and other social
sciences
Participants will be selected on the basis of their research abstracts.  Admission is
strictly limited, and the pace is intense.  Participants must attend all sessions and
give as well as receive feedback.

As a participant, you will
Hear
established scholars discuss their strategies to formulate research questions,
design projects, and draw important and practical conclusions.
Make two presentations of your own research
(1) in a small group, receiving faculty guidance
(2) after revisions, to the entire workshop, with discussion following.
Network through close, informal contacts with faculty and workshop alumni from
over 55 countries who have an enduring interest in institutional analysis.

How to apply (please read carefully and follow instructions precisely)
E-mail a one-page abstract – 350 words maximum – of a current research project of yours,
plus a one-page curriculum vitae, to
workshop2009ba@coase.org.
Do this before the deadline February 16, 2009. Work already published is not eligible.

At the top of your one-page abstract, list the title, your name, and the number of words
in the abstract.  Any co-authors must be listed here. (At most 1 person per research project
can be accepted.)  Abstracts will be judged on the clarity and importance of the research
question, and on their institutional focus.  Please do not submit any longer documents,
as they will not be read.

On your one-page CV, include your current professional status and the academic degrees
you have received, with university, year, and field of study.  Also include your citizenship,
date of birth, and country of residence.  Give as references the names, e-mail addresses,
and telephone numbers of two scholars familiar with you and your work.

As e-mail subject line, use Application for 2009 Bratislava Workshop – yyy
(where yyy is your surname).  Attach your abstract and CV as Microsoft Word .doc files,
using filenames yyy abstract.doc and yyy cv.doc (where yyy is your surname).

Costs
The cost of the workshop – tuition and meals – is $2395 USD.  This does not include hotel
accommodations or travel expenses.  Some fellowships will be awarded competitively to
scholars from developing and transitional countries, for tuition, meals, and hotel accommodations.
If you wish to be considered for a fellowship, you must state that in your application.

For more information about the Ronald Coase Institute and previous workshops, see
www.coase.org