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Dois bons artigos para se ler…

Este, do Bernardo Mueller, Lee Alston e co-autores e este outro, do Rogério Boueri.

Anúncios
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Mais sobre a crise mundial

Lee Ohanian and Harold Cole of the University of California, Los Angeles, say that the high-wage method of fending off economic depression can make a depression more likely.

Ultimate Depression

The model Ohanian and Cole use is the ultimate depression, the Great Depression of the 1930s. Early in that depression, unemployment hit 25 percent. It fell all the way to 13 percent or 14 percent in the mid-1930s, only to head up to 19 percent in the later 1930s. This was a huge shift from the preceding decade, when unemployment averaged less than 5 percent.

What was transpiring at GM or Ford Motor Co. in those days? In the 1920s, Henry Ford pushed for wage increases in the faith that they would enable workers to buy more cars. A young labor leader named John L. Lewis was also pushing for higher wages. Lewis convinced Herbert Hoover, who, first as Commerce secretary, and then as president, insisted higher was better. After the stock market crash of 1929 — the equivalent period to now, more or less — Hoover sought to block wage cuts.

Direto da Bloomberg.

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Briga boa: Spanos vs McCloskey e Ziliak

Review of Stephen Ziliak and Deirdre McCloskey’s The cult of statistical significance: how the standard error costs us jobs, justice, and lives [PDF]

Aris Spanos

Science is judgement, not only calculation: a reply to Aris Spanos’s review of The cult of statistical significance [PDF]

Stephen T. Ziliak and Deirdre N. McCloskey

Não é um journal que eu vá ler muito, mas estes dois artigos realmente valem a pena. Afinal, não é todo dia que você tem a chance de ler uma crítica à econometria realmente relevante – ao contrário da pterodoxia brasileira, que não sabe mesmo é fazer conta – McCloskey e Ziliak têm muito a dizer sobre estatística e econometria. Spanos, por sua vez, é o autor do assustador Statistical Foundations of Econometric Modelling que o Eduardo Pontual adorava usar em seu curso de Econometria I no Mestrado/Doutorado lá do PPGE.

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Privatizar ou não privatizar: eis a questão

Privatization and government preference

Hideya Kato

Abstract
This paper uses a mixed oligopoly model to examine the relationship between the privatization of a public firm and government preferences for tax revenue. From a public choice viewpoint, we assume the government prefers tax revenue to the sum of consumer and producer surplus, whereas the public firm only cares about the sum of consumer and producer surplus. The results indicate that if the government sufficiently prefers tax revenue, it will not privatize the public firm.

Algumas das mais interessantes aplicações da teoria dos oligopólios está em sua relação com o governo, este ente que falha mais do que admitem seus entusiastas “torcedores” (em contraposição aos “teóricos” ou, como dizem alguns, “acientíficos”, na visão doutrinária que assola o Febeapá nacional).

Vale a leitura. Quem já estudou um duopólio de Cournot na vida vai se divertir com o artigo.