Vejamos o que um conterrâneo de Celso diz sobre sua suposta sabedoria econômica. Vale a pena ler até o final.
Scheinkman é, sem dúvida, um dos melhores economistas de sua geração. Um teórico de mão cheia. Agora, esta matéria com ele é cheia de obviedades e uma estranha estimativa. Muito economista bom deste país selvagem poderia ter dito o mesmo que ele (eu preferia entrevistar Scheinkman sobre suas geniais sacadas teóricas, muito mais relevantes do que sua descrição da conjuntura, mas vá lá…). Mas a jornalista preferiu perguntar em Princeton. Talvez ela não aguente mais as asneiras que ouve de “supostos” economistas nos jornais sertanejos (ou seja, brasileiros). Ou talvez não tenha ouvido os economistas sérios da selva (que los hay, los hay…).
Agora, só queria saber de onde saiu esta estimativa do crescimento da economia brasileira com a mundial.
O economista estimou que, “se a economia mundial cresce 1% a mais, o PIB brasileiro cresce cerca de 0,5% a mais”.
De onde saiu esta estimativa? Se alguém tier os dados da variável “economia mundial” para eu brincar como o Scheinkman, agradeço o envio do link ou da dica.
…eis um texto interessante sobre a necessidade de transparência na política monetária.
Eis aí um artigo interessante:
Nauro Campos & Renata Leite Barbosa
Revised version forthcoming in Oxford Economic Papers
This paper uses a unique data set of Latin American paintings auctioned by Sotheby’s between 1995 and 2002 to investigate several puzzles from the recent auctions literature. Our results suggest that: (i) the reputation of an artist and the provenance of the artwork, often omitted variables in previous studies, seem to be more important determinants of the sale price of a painting than more standard factors, such as medium and size, (ii) the opinion of art experts seems to be of limited use in predicting whether or not an artwork sells at auction, (iii) there is little supporting evidence for the widespread notion that the best or more expensive artworks tend to generate above average returns (the “masterpiece effect”), although (iv) there is strong evidence in our data for the declining price anomaly or “afternoon effect” (that is, when heterogeneous products sold sequentially follow a decreasing pattern of prices.)
Esta notícia sobre um certo partido legítimo representante da esquerda autêntica só surpreende quem nunca estudou história (sem o viés doutrinário dos professores que, aliás, pertencem ao dito partido e similares).
Kawashima não só recusou a grana a que tinha direito como mostrou que sabe educar os filhos. Ah sim, antes que digam que o homem não acredita em incentivos, ele também disse que um pesquisador tem que receber algum cobre para trabalhar. Não é pela boa vontade do padeiro, do açougueiro…
Diz o estudo:
Abstract: We study the determinants of the decision to become an entrepreneur in Russia, China, and Brazil, using unique survey data at the individual level. We find that entrepreneurs have many common characteristics relative to non-entrepreneurs in all three countries. They are more likely to have entrepreneurs among their relatives and friends, place a higher value on work, are happier and perceive themselves as more successful. There are also a few important differences. Russian and Chinese entrepreneurs are more mobile geographically and across jobs. In Brazil, on the contrary, entrepreneurs are less mobile across jobs and industries. Brazil entrepreneurs have higher trust than non-entrepreneurs, while in Russia and China this is not the case. Finally, we confirm that perceptions of institutional environment are an important determinant of individual decisions to expand business.
Bacana? Veja mais (negrito por minha conta):
Entrepreneurs in Russia and China more often than nonentrepreneurs think that accepting a bribe in some circumstances can be justified to some degree: 36% of entrepreneurs vs. 22% of non-entrepreneurs in Russia, and 21% of entrepreneurs vs. 8% of non-entrepreneurs in China tolerate having a public official accept a bribe in some circumstances. In Brazil, there is no significant difference between the groups, with tolerance towards accepting bribes being very low (only 2% of Brazil entrepreneurs and 5% of non-entrepreneurs consider accepting a bribe justifiable to some degree). In Russia and China, there is no significant differences between entrepreneurs and non-entrepreneurs in the attitude towards paying bribes, with the tolerance towards paying bribes being rather high (56% of Russian and 25% of Chinese entrepreneurs consider paying a bribe to be justifiable to some degree). In Brazil, entrepreneurs are more tolerant towards paying bribes than nonentrepreneurs; although for both groups tolerance towards paying bribes is much lower (only 15% of entrepreneurs and 9% of non-entrepreneurs in Brazil consider paying a bribe to be justifiable to some degree).
Empresários ou Empreendedores? Digamos que, para mim, a diferença está na repulsa em manter relações incestuosas com o governo. Apesar de tudo…
Brazilian entrepreneurs are much more pessimistic about the efficiency of courts than non-entrepreneurs. Only 45% of entrepreneurs in Brazil compared to 73% of non-entrepreneurs think that it makes sense for entrepreneur in their city to go to court if cheated by a business relation; and 38% of entrepreneurs compared to 60% of non-entrepreneurs think that it makes sense for entrepreneur to go to court if abused by a government official. In China, on the contrary, entrepreneurs are more optimistic about the efficiency of courts than non-entrepreneurs (the difference is insignificant for the cases against business relations, and significant for the cases against government officials). Chinese entrepreneurs evaluate attitude of local government towards entrepreneurs better than non-entrepreneurs, and attitude of central government – worse. (…) For example, 64% of entrepreneurs and 69% of non-entrepreneurs in Russia; 75% of entrepreneurs and 84% of non-entrepreneurs in China; and only 8% of entrepreneurs and 10% of non-entrepreneurs in Brazil think that central government in their country is in favor of entrepreneurs.
E a regressão nos diz…..
The results of our regression analysis suggest that institutional environment is an important determinant of business growth. First, the (perceived) attitude of government towards entrepreneurs matters a great deal. The best for entrepreneurs are those local and regional governments that do not intervene into the day to day business operations. Those local and regional governments which are perceived as either trying to help or to hinder business environment are associated with lower planned business growth. Finally, higher
planned business growth is accompanied with more efficient courts and higher levels of corruption.
Interessante, não? Aquela nossa discussão de empreendedorismo só incomoda mais…
André Zilio explica um pouco do wishful thinking dos empresários que não vivem sem uma esmola governamental.