metas de inflação

Metas de inflação: faz diferença?

Frederic Mishkin é um sujeito importante quando o assunto são as famosas metas de inflação.  Aí vai um trecho legal:

NBER Research Associate Frederic Mishkin and co-author Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel review the pros and cons of inflation targeting in Does Inflation Targeting Make A Difference? (This work — published in NBER Working Paper No. 12876 – was completed before Mishkin became a member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.) Developing – or emerging – nations with high inflation benefit the most from the practice, the study finds. For mature, developed nations like the United States, the benefits are far more subtle.

Many nations are warming to the idea of inflation targeting. By 2005, for example, eight industrial economies and 13 emerging ones had adopted full-fledged inflation targeting. Many others expect to make the move soon. But the case for inflation targeting has not been open and shut.

While studies have generally established a link between the practice and improved economic performance, they haven’t proven that the former causes the latter. Indeed, stable and mature non-targeting nations, including the United States, have often done just as well or better without it. “[T]he ongoing debate on whether inflation targeting matters indicates that open questions remain, particularly on the comparative macroeconomic performance in inflation targeting countries, both over time and relative to nontargeting countries,” write the authors of this study. “[W]hat really matters for successful monetary policy is establishing a strong nominal anchor. While inflation targeting is one way to achieve this, it is not the only way.”

By looking carefully at a broad sample of 21industrial and emerging-economy inflation-targeting countries over time, and comparing them with a control group of 13 industrial non-targeters, the authors conclude that a target does indeed improve economic performance but the effects vary dramatically depending on the type of economy that attempts it.

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