John McDermott tem um novo artigo sobre o não-desenvolvimento, ou desenvolvimento negativo.
Negative growth — or undevelopment — is not unusual, even over fifty years. This paper presents an explanation of undevelopment based on two kinds of shocks: integration shocks that reduce output at a point in time, and property-rights shocks that reduce accumulation. The two kinds of shocks produce exactly the same result in balanced-growth equilibrium, but very different outcomes in the short run. A negative property rights shock raises output immediately, but sets up a long transitional adjustment that may account for observed undevelopment. Because of the immediate response of individuals to a reduction in security of property, it may be rational for the government to reduce property rights following a negative integration shock — or disintegration. This smoothes output in the short run but has a devastating long-run effect. Probit and panel regressions are run to find support for the theory.
Alguma lição para os burocratas brasileiros? Leia ali, sobre “property rights”…