Se tem um cara que eu admiro um bocado, este alguém é o Peter Temin. Veja só este artigo, com Joachim Fest:
Interest Rate Restrictions in a Natural Experiment: Loan Allocation and the Change in the Usury Laws in 1714
This paper studies the effects of interest rate restrictions on loan allocation. In 1714, the British government tightened the usury laws, reducing the maximum permissible interest rate from 6 to 5 percent. A sample of individual loan transactions from a goldsmith bank allows us to examine how interest rate restrictions affected loan allocation. Average loan size and minimum loan size increased strongly. Access to credit for those of noble origin improved, while it worsened for those with less “social capital”. Collateralized credits, which had accounted for a declining share of total lending, returned to their former role of prominence. While we have no direct evidence that loans were misallocated, the discontinuity in loan receipts makes this likely. Our results suggest that the usury laws distorted credit markets significantly. We find no evidence that they offered a form of Pareto-improving social insurance.
É incrível, não? Ele sempre acha dados onde eu nunca acho que ele vai achar…
Eis a referência para você obter o artigo.