A Lei de Benford

In 1972, Hal Varian suggested that the law could be used to detect possible fraud in lists of socio-economic data submitted in support of public planning decisions. Based on the plausible assumption that people who make up figures tend to distribute their digits fairly uniformly, a simple comparison of first-digit frequency distribution from the data with the expected distribution according to Benford’s law ought to show up any anomalous results.

In the same vein, Benford’s law can be (and is) used to analyse insurance, accounting or expenses data and identify possible fraud.

Other uses, for example to analyse the results of clinical trials and election results, have also been proposed.

É, matemática ajuda cientistas sociais mais do que eles imaginam…


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Esta é bacana

Do comentário do – licenciado – Leo, abaixo:

Partisans, it turns out, don’t just arrive at different conclusions; they see entirely different worlds . In one especially telling experiment, researchers showed 144 observers six television news segments about Israel’s 1982 war with Lebanon.

Pro-Arab viewers heard 42 references that painted Israel in a positive light and 26 references that painted Israel unfavorably.

Pro-Israeli viewers, who watched the very same clips, spotted 16 references that painted Israel positively and 57 references that painted Israel negatively.

Both groups were certain they were right and that the other side didn’t know what it was talking about.


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