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Sobre inflação e crescimento

Em um post abaixo Shikida fala do Sardenberg e suas afirmações sobre a relação entre inflação e crescimento. Também não sei o que ele (Sardenberg) disse mas aí vai um paper (conhecido por muitos) do Barro sobre o assunto.

Inflation and Economic Growth
Robert J. Barro

Data for around 100 countries from 1960 to 1990 are used to assess the effects of inflation on economic performance. If a number of country characteristics are held constant, then regression results indicate that the impact effects from an increase in average inflation by 10 percentage points per year are a reduction of the growth rate of real per capita GDP by 0.2-0.3 percentage points per year and a decrease in the ratio of investment to GDP by 0.4-0.6 percentage points. Since the statistical procedures use plausible instruments for inflation, there is some reason to believe that these relations reflect causal influences from inflation to growth and investment. However, statistically significant results emerge only when high- inflation experiences are included in the sample. Although the adverse influence of inflation on growth looks small, the long-term effects on standards of living are substantial. For example, a shift in monetary policy that raises the long-term average inflation rate by 10 percentage points per year is estimated to lower the level of real GDP after 30 years by 4-7%, more than enough to justify a strong interest in price stability.

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Lições de ética econômica: Ken Arrow

Você acha que uma Escola de Administração Pública não deveria contratar um professor crítico do papel do governo na economia? Muita gente coloca a ideologia acima da ciência na hora de responder a esta pergunta (e acusa quem não o faz de “positivista”).

Talvez seja melhor se afastar destas pessoas e ficar com a companhia de Kenneth Arrow. Veja a resposta dele nesta entrevista bacana, quando lhe falam do excelente artigo de Dan Klein sobre o viés anti-conservador na academia norte-americana:


Arrow: You know, it certainly does worry me. It would worry me a lot if legislation passed. There was a concern at one time that there would be repression of the left. And now there are concerns that the left is taking over. It’s hard for me to judge, of course, but I must say that my department contains a number of Republicans. And they were appointed by a democratic group, whose members said these guys are good, and we’ve got to hire them. And so far, I have not seen it work the other way, but I’m a little concerned about where it could swing. In this case, the criticism seems to be just wrong, because I think the departments hire on the basis of merit. And I think it’s nonsense to say that we’re discriminating against Republicans. We hire them all the time. On the other hand, there was a department here that until the 1960s would not appoint a Jew. And, finally, the university did interfere, you see, in that case. The dean took over the department. He took away the power to appoint from the department and changed its composition in three or four years. In fact, I was amazed how rapidly he was able to turn things around to strengthen an already very good department. To defend the autonomy of that department would not have been something I would have been very happy to do.

Arrow é esperto. Ele sabe que o mais importante é a competência do sujeito, não se ele é católico ou protestante.

Claudio

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Perguntas dos leitores

Dois leitores deste blog fizeram duas perguntas distintas. Uma, sobre antropometria, eu respondo com este link e com a notícia de que, sim, é uma boa área de pesquisa.

Já a outra pergunta é mais complicada. Um leitor me pergunta sobre uma alegada afirmação do Sardenberg (em entrevista no rádio) de que “crescimento econômico nada teria a ver com inflação”. Se bem conheço Sardenberg, ele não deve ter dito esta frase…fora de algum contexto. Como não sei bem o que ele disse, prefiro me abster.

É isto, quando posso, eu tento responder as perguntas de vocês. Mas só quando posso, né? 🙂

Claudio
p.s. veja também este texto sobre antropometria.

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